KOREA DIGEST
Korea Digest is a monthly publication of the Korea Centre, School of International Relations and Politics, Mahatma Gandhi University that compiles major political, security, economic and diplomatic developments in the Korean Peninsula. Korea Digest aims to track, highlight and provide brief analysis of important developments in the Korean Peninsula.
Korea Digest No. 16 October 2024
Contents
- Heightened Security Tensions in the Korean Peninsula
- Korea and U.S. Reach Defence Cost-Sharing Agreement with 8.3% Increase Set for 2026
- President Yoon Attended ASEAN Meetings and Bilateral Summits in Three Southeast Asian Nations
- South Korea Secures Seat on U.N. Human Rights Council
- North Korea and Vietnam hold talks to strengthen bilateral ties
- Seoul Strikes Deal with Poland for Advanced Suicide Drones
- South Korea and three other Indo-Pacific partners Make Historic Debut at NATO Defence Ministers’ Meeting
- South Korean Army stages first overseas tank, howitzer drills in Qatar
- North Korea Sends 12,000 Troops to Bolster Russia in Ukraine Conflict
- Russia’s lower house ratified treaty with North Korea on mutual military support
Prepared by
Mohammed Unais AV, Project Fellow, Korea Centre
- Heightened Security Tensions in the Korean Peninsula
In October 2024, tensions on the Korean Peninsula continued to intensify due to mutual provocations from both North and South Korea. On October 2, South Korean military officials reported that North Korea had resumed sending balloons loaded with waste material across the border. This action marked the first such instance since September 22, with additional balloon launches following on October 7, 8, 11, 13, 20, and 24, as reported by South Korean national media. The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) warned that it would respond with “stern military action” should it determine that North Korea’s balloon activity threatens public safety or crosses critical boundaries. South Korean authorities have cautioned residents to avoid handling any suspicious balloon debris and to report it immediately to local military or police.
Notably, the October 13 balloons reportedly carried GPS transmitters, which the JCS suggests could allow North Korea to monitor their flight paths. The October 24 launch even reached the Yongsan District in central Seoul, impacting the presidential office area. The ongoing balloon activities have occasionally disrupted operations at Incheon International Airport, where flights have been grounded for hours as a safety precaution. Since late May, North Korea has launched over 5,000 trash-filled balloons across 22 separate incidents, ostensibly in retaliation for anti-regime leaflets distributed by defectors in South Korea. In response, South Korea has been broadcasting anti-North Korea messages via loudspeakers along the border daily since July 21.
In response to concerns about North Korean bioterrorism tactics, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) announced plans to develop a vaccine aimed at countering potential biological threats posed by trash-filled balloons launched across the border. Speaking at a parliamentary audit session on October 7, KDCA Chief Jee Young-mi emphasized that North Korea could have intentions of deploying balloons as biological weapons. To address this risk, the KDCA plans to complete the vaccine this year and begin stockpiling antidotes in 2025. Additionally, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety is expected to approve an anthrax vaccine developed by the KDCA by year-end, as part of broader biosecurity measures.
On October 1, 2024, during South Korea’s Armed Forces Day ceremony, President Yoon Suk-Yeol issued a stark warning to North Korea, stating that any attempt by Pyongyang to deploy nuclear weapons would lead to the end of its regime. Yoon pledged that a nuclear threat would be met with a resolute and overwhelming response from South Korea and its ally, the United States, marking a severe turning point in inter-Korean relations. He criticized the North’s leadership, accusing it of perpetuating a cycle of failure and collapse through hereditary succession, neglecting its people’s welfare, and prioritizing nuclear and missile threats. The ceremony, held at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, featured 5,300 troops and 340 pieces of military equipment, including South Korea’s latest KF-21 fighter jets, F-35A stealth jets, and a performance by the Black Eagles aerobatic team. The South Korean military also showcased innovative technologies, including multi-legged robots, laser-based anti-aircraft systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and autonomous underwater vehicles. Meanwhile, U.S. B-1B bombers performed a flyover, underscoring the strength of the ROK-U.S. alliance.
In response, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un responded on October 2, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), dismissing Yoon’s comments as provocations and labelling him an “abnormal man” who is needlessly provoking a nuclear-armed state. During a visit to the North’s special operations training center on October 2, Kim criticised Yoon’s call for a military response as an irony, given South Korea’s proximity to North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. Kim reiterated that North Korea is a “nuclear weapon state” with what he described as an “irreversible” nuclear power status and a fully developed nuclear operation system. This is the first time in two years Kim has addressed Yoon without using his official title, underscoring rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
On October 11, North Korea accused South Korea of deploying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over Pyongyang, describing the alleged drone incursion as a grave military provocation. According to the North Korean Foreign Ministry, South Korea allegedly deployed UAVs carrying anti-Pyongyang leaflets over Pyongyang on October 3 and in the following days, which it condemned as a blatant infringement of national sovereignty and a serious breach of international law. The ministry warned that such actions could escalate into armed conflict and asserted the right to self-defense, hinting at possible retaliatory measures. Alongside the statement, North Korea released images purportedly showing a South Korean drone and a container with anti-regime leaflets. In response, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff initially stated that no such drones had been dispatched by the military, though they later noted that they could not verify North Korea’s claims. Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun also denied the allegations, suggesting the incident might be fabricated by North Korea. Meanwhile, Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, warned that any further drone incursions could have disastrous consequences. In South Korea, the opposition Democratic Party criticized the government’s ambiguous response to North Korea’s accusations, with spokesperson Han Min-seo stating at a National Assembly press conference that the government’s unclear stance was irresponsible and disrespectful to the public.
On October 15, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) confirmed that North Korea had demolished two key inter-Korean road links along both the eastern and western corridors of the Korean Peninsula, effectively severing the remaining road connections between the two countries. North Korea reportedly cut off road connections by demolishing sections of the Gyeonggi and Donghae routes north of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), following claims that South Korean drones had breached its airspace. In response, South Korea’s Unification Ministry condemned the actions as “regressive” and placed full responsibility on Pyongyang. The North previously cut rail connections along the Gyeonggi and Donghae lines last August, and this recent move has eliminated the last underground corridors once seen as symbols of peace and cooperation between the Koreas. As tensions escalate, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has become increasingly volatile.
South Korea’s navy recently conducted a large-scale training exercise in the East Sea, aiming to bolster defenses against potential North Korean maritime threats. The four-day drill, which ran from October 22, included around 20 naval vessels, such as the Aegis-equipped ROKS Seoae Ryu Seong-ryong destroyer, along with multiple aircraft, including P-3 maritime patrol planes and Air Force F-5 fighters. The United States also participated, deploying P-8 patrol aircraft and A-10 attack aircraft to enhance joint readiness. The training simulated various attack scenarios, preparing soldiers to respond to enemy special forces infiltrations and surprise assaults from underwater, sea, and air. The exercise comes amid recent cross-border tensions following North Korea’s demolition of inter-Korean roads, reflecting the rising urgency for enhanced security measures.
On October 30, the South Korean military reported that North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on a high-angle trajectory toward the East Sea. The following day, North Korea confirmed the successful test of its new Hwasong-19 ICBM, with leader Kim Jong-un declaring it a significant, “irreversible” step in the country’s nuclear weapons delivery capabilities. South Korean defense officials stated that they detected the missile launch at 7:10 a.m. from North Pyongyang and identified it as a new solid-fuel ICBM. According to North Korea, the Hwasong-19 traveled 1,001.2 kilometers, reached a peak altitude of 7,687.5 kilometers, and remained airborne for 5,156 seconds. Notably, this test occurred just days before the U.S. presidential election on November 5, which analysts believe may be a deliberate display of North Korea’s ability to strike the U.S. mainland. North Korea described the missile as the “ultimate” weapon in its long-range arsenal, calling it an “extremely powerful means of attack.”
2. Korea and U.S. Reach Defence Cost-Sharing Agreement with 8.3% Increase Set for 2026
Korea and the United States have finalized the 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA), determining Seoul’s financial contribution to the maintenance of US troops in the country from 2026 to 2030, according to the foreign ministry. This five-year agreement was reached after eight rounds of negotiations over five months, concluding with talks held from September 25 to 27 and October 1 to 2. Korean chief negotiator Lee Tae-woo and US representative Linda Specht led the discussions, with a preliminary signing occurring on October 3. The agreement stipulates an 8.3 per cent increase in Korea’s contribution for the first year in 2026, with future annual adjustments linked to inflation rather than the growth of the defence budget. This reverts to a system based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) used in previous SMAs. Under the 12th SMA, Korea’s contribution will begin at 1.52 trillion won (approximately $1.1 billion) in 2026, with subsequent increases tied to the CPI from two years prior. If inflation holds around 2 per cent, Korea’s total contribution could reach 1.64 trillion won by 2030, marking a 17.2 per cent rise from 2026, averaging an annual increase of 3.2 per cent, half the previous agreement’s average of 6.2 per cent.
The transition from defence budget growth to CPI as the basis for annual adjustments, along with reintroducing a cap limit, is a significant milestone. He emphasised that finalising the 12th SMA before the 11th SMA expires in 2025 ensures stability in the agreement’s implementation. Negotiations for the new SMA commenced earlier than usual, starting in April, nearly 20 months prior to the expiration of the current agreement, driven by concerns over the potential re-election of Donald Trump in November, who has criticised South Korea regarding its contributions to USFK costs.
3. Seoul inked a Deal with Poland for Advanced Suicide Drones
On October 2, South Korea has signed a landmark agreement with Poland to acquire stealth drones, advancing its unmanned aerial capabilities in response to escalating drone threats from North Korea. This marks South Korea’s first arms procurement from Poland, forming part of a reciprocal trade deal that also benefits Poland, a major buyer of South Korean defence equipment. The acquisition involves Warmate drones manufactured by Polish defence firm WB Electronics, chosen for their proven effectiveness in Ukraine. While exact numbers and costs remain undisclosed, Korean media suggests that 200 units have been ordered. Drone Delivery is set for November 2024, with deployment to the South Korean Army and the Drone Operations Command anticipated by December, media reported.
The agreement was signed during the Korean Army International Defence Exhibition (KADEX) at Gyeondae, South Chungcheong Province. Discussions began last June when Poland proposed the sale, with South Korea finalizing the decision in August. In July, South Korean Defence Minister Sangum visited Poland to evaluate the drones’ performance in operational settings and to inspect production capabilities. Warmate was ultimately selected due to its active production line, allowing for swift fulfilment of the order. These drones weigh 5.7 kg, have a 30 km operational range, an attack speed of 150 km/h, and are easily transportable. They can be equipped with various warheads, including high-explosives.
Currently, the South Korean military operates a large fleet of drones, mainly for monitoring North Korean artillery. However, recent developments, including Pyongyang’s testing of suicide drones and speculated assistance from Russia and Iran, have heightened Seoul’s concerns over drone-based threats. In August, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was photographed overseeing a test of these drones, underscoring their evolving capabilities. South Korean defence officials hope this new purchase will further solidify defence cooperation with Poland. In 2022, Poland signed a $22 billion agreement with South Korea for military hardware, including K2 tanks, K9 howitzers, FA-50 fighter jets, and Chunmoo rocket launchers—South Korea’s largest-ever arms export deal.
4. President Yoon Attended ASEAN Meetings and Bilateral Summits in Three Southeast Asian Nations
President Yoon Suk Yeol embarked on a six-day visit from October 6 to enhance diplomatic and economic ties across Southeast Asia, attending the ASEAN summit and holding key bilateral talks in the Philippines, Singapore, and Laos. During his October 6-7 visit to the Philippines, marking 75 years of bilateral relations, South Korea and the Philippines elevated their diplomatic relationship to a “strategic partnership.” This advancement includes stronger collaboration in nuclear energy and security, as outlined in a joint declaration by President Yoon and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Both leaders signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to initiate a feasibility study for reviving the Bataan nuclear power plant, with Yoon highlighting the significance of nuclear energy as a carbon-free source and designating South Korea as a prime partner in the Philippines’ nuclear development.
Following this, on October 8, President Yoon held a summit with Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, where South Korea and Singapore reached several agreements to enhance supply chain stability in the energy and biotechnology sectors. The two nations signed a pioneering Supply Chain Partnership Arrangement (SCPA), promoting resilience in critical supply chains beyond raw materials. A notable MoU on liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply was also signed, enabling Korea Gas Corporation and Singapore’s Energy Market Authority to cooperate in LNG supply management, potentially lowering costs by jointly managing inventories and swaps. President Yoon underscored Singapore’s role as a crucial partner, envisioning joint efforts for future economic advancement.
On October 10, Yoon participated in the ASEAN and ASEAN Plus Three Summits in Laos, where South Korea elevated its relationship with ASEAN to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” During discussions, the leaders focused on strengthening cooperation in security, technology, cybersecurity, and clean energy. Yoon also met Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, marking their first summit since Ishiba took office. Both leaders agreed to foster close ties, building on last year’s diplomatic advances between Seoul and Tokyo. Yoon highlighted the importance of mutual trust and proposed further shuttle diplomacy, noting that 2025 will commemorate the 60th anniversary of normalized Korea-Japan relations. The two leaders expressed shared concerns over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and cyber activities and condemned North Korea-Russia military cooperation as a destabilizing factor in regional security. Additionally, Yoon conducted eight other bilateral summits with leaders from Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, and others, focusing on economic and security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.
5. South Korea Secured Seat on U.N. Human Rights Council
South Korea has secured a seat on the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) for the term spanning from 2025 to 2027, as announced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Seoul following a vote at the UN General Assembly in New York on October 9. This marks the sixth time South Korea has been elected to the Council since it became a founding member in 2006, having previously served terms from 2006 to 2008, 2008 to 2011, 2013 to 2015, 2016 to 2018, and 2020 to 2022. In addition to the Human Rights Council, South Korea is set to hold leadership positions in three key UN bodies in 2025: the Economic and Social Council, the Security Council, and the Human Rights Council. Currently, South Korea serves on the Security Council for 2024-2025 and on the Economic and Social Council for 2023-2025. The foreign ministry expressed the government’s commitment to actively engage in discussions surrounding critical international human rights issues, including the human rights situation in North Korea, as well as to support global efforts to protect and promote human rights during its upcoming term on the Council. South Korea gained its seat with the backing of 161 out of 190 voting member states, alongside fellow elected members Thailand, Cyprus, Qatar, and the Marshall Islands.
6. South Korea and three other Indo-Pacific partners Make Historic Debut at NATO Defence Ministers’ Meeting
For the first time, South Korea and three other Indo-Pacific partners participated in the NATO Defence Ministerial Meeting held on October 17-18, a strategic move to strengthen NATO’s engagement with key players in the Indo-Pacific. While previous NATO meetings included leaders and foreign ministers from the region, this event marked the first attendance by defence ministers. South Korea’s Vice Defence Minister Kim Seon-ho represented Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who was occupied with a parliamentary audit.
This expanded meeting format, which includes Indo-Pacific defence ministers, underscores NATO’s commitment to deepening global partnerships in response to mutual security concerns, including ongoing support for Russia from China, North Korea, and Iran. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte highlighted the importance of this enhanced collaboration, citing joint efforts to bolster cyber defence, innovation, and defence production, while also exploring artificial intelligence to counter disinformation.
As global security threats intensify, Secretary-General Rutte emphasized the need for NATO and its allies to accelerate their efforts, enhancing force readiness, expanding defence capabilities, and increasing investments. Key focus areas include building defence production capacities, strengthening supply chains, and advancing technology to maintain resilience across all domains.
The discussions provided a platform for NATO and its Indo-Pacific partners to share insights on security in both the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions, addressing concerns such as Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, China’s strategic ambitions, and regional stability on the Korean Peninsula. The meeting also underscored Indo-Pacific contributions to NATO’s global security agenda, including cyber defence, deterrence, maritime security, and climate-related security impacts.
Additionally, NATO confirmed significant support for Ukraine, with member countries pledging 20.9 billion euros in military aid for the first half of 2024 and plans to meet commitments for the year. A new NATO command centre is being established in Wiesbaden to coordinate security assistance and training, accompanied by a 40-billion-euro aid package for Ukraine.
7. North Korea Sends 12,000 Troops to Bolster Russia in Ukraine Conflict
On October 18, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed that North Korea plans to deploy 12,000 troops to assist Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine. According to NIS sources, North Korea has recently decided to send four brigades, including special forces, and has begun the troop deployment, marking the first significant mobilization of its military forces in this context. This development follows a report from the Kyiv Independent on October 15, which indicated that North Korea had already sent 10,000 troops to Russia. In response to this situation, South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol convened an emergency security meeting on the same day to discuss the implications of North Korea’s military actions. High-ranking officials from the National Security Office, Defense Ministry, and NIS deliberated extensively on the security risks posed by the deepening military ties between North Korea and Russia. The presidential office emphasised that this escalation, which has progressed from military supply exchanges to troop deployment, represents a serious threat not only to South Korea but to global security as well.
Concerns regarding North Korea’s troop support for Russia heightened after a Ukrainian government-affiliated organization released a video on October 19 showing what appeared to be North Korean soldiers preparing for deployment at a Russian military training facility. While the authenticity of the soldiers in the 28-second clip has not been verified, both the U.S. and NATO confirmed on October 23 the presence of North Korean troops in Russia, corroborating South Korea’s earlier claims. White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby noted that at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers had been moved to eastern Russia between early and mid-October and indicated that they traveled by ship from Wonsan to Vladivostok, where they are stationed at various training centers in the Russian Far East. NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhla also confirmed the deployment following the U.S. statement.
In response, the European Union announced additional sanctions against Russia and North Korea, with chief spokesman Peter Stano warning that any confirmed involvement of North Korean troops in the conflict would constitute a significant violation of international law, with the EU prepared to take further action. On October 25, Ukrainian media reported the arrival of the first contingent of North Korean troops in Russia’s western border region near Ukraine. On October 30, during the annual defense talks at the Pentagon, defense chiefs from South Korea and the United States strongly condemned North Korea’s military deployment, fearing it would further escalate the conflict in Ukraine. However, both Russia and North Korea have yet to issue a formal response or confirmation regarding the deployment.
8. South Korean Army stages first overseas tank, howitzer drills in Qatar
The South Korean Army recently conducted its first overseas exercise involving tanks and howitzers in Qatar, according to military officials, on October 21. Earlier this month, around 100 South Korean soldiers, along with four K2 tanks and four K9 self-propelled howitzers, arrived in Qatar via a Navy landing ship to participate in joint live-fire drills at the Al Qalail Training Centre. This exercise marks the first deployment of South Korean armoured vehicles in a foreign training exercise. During the drills at a desert training area, South Korean forces operated alongside Qatar’s Leopard 2A7 tanks and Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers, engaging in various combined-arms exercises and live-fire drills. This collaboration is part of South Korea’s broader aim to establish itself as a key player in the global arms market, building on a defence cooperation memorandum signed with Qatar last February.
9. North Korea and Vietnam hold talks to strengthen bilateral ties
On October 23, North Korea’s state media announced a meeting between vice foreign ministers from North Korea and Vietnam aimed at enhancing bilateral cooperation. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that Pak Sang-gil and Vietnamese Councilor Nguyen Minh Vu convened in Pyongyang, where they engaged in comprehensive discussions. They reached an agreement to bolster exchanges and cooperation across various sectors, further solidifying the longstanding friendly relations between their nations. Pak’s visit follows his trip to Vietnam last September, part of a broader tour that included Laos, Thailand, and Indonesia. Additionally, in early August, North Korea appointed Ri Sung-guk as its new ambassador to Vietnam, a position that had been vacant since Kim Myong-gil’s departure in April 2019, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. With the reopening of its borders after extended pandemic restrictions, North Korea has increased its diplomatic efforts with traditionally allied nations, including Vietnam.
10. Russia’s lower house ratified treaty with North Korea on mutual military support
On October 24, Russian and Korean media reported that the lower house of the Russian parliament had approved a bilateral agreement with North Korea, committing both nations to provide military assistance in the event of an armed attack. This decision follows a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last June, during which the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” agreement was established. The agreement stipulates that military support will be rendered “without delay” if either country is attacked. This development occurs amidst escalating tensions, particularly after South Korea and the United States confirmed that North Korea is dispatching troops to support Russia in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In a plenary session, lawmakers in the State Duma voted overwhelmingly in favor of the agreement, with a tally of 397 votes to none, and it will now be forwarded to the upper house, the Federation Council, for final approval. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin emphasized the importance of fostering comprehensive and complementary relations with North Korea. However, Moscow has not commented on reports of North Korean troop deployments on its territory. In addition to troop movements, North Korea is believed to have already supplied Russia with weapons intended for use in the Ukraine conflict. The alliance between Russia and North Korea has strengthened since both nations’ formations after World War two, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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